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Global Fertilizer Demand: The Long-Term Outlook

 
Summary
Table of contents
A new, ground-breaking study, helping you understand how global crop production and fertilizer consumption are set to change to 2030.

Global Fertilizer Demand: The Long-Term Outlook is the first study to evaluate the link between crop and fertilizer demand in all major countries, by nutrient, for all major crops.

Employing  unique, robust methodology, it goes beyond the boundaries of the traditional “trend analysis” and fertilizer demand forecasting techniques currently being employed worldwide.

Global Fertilizer Demand: The Long-Term Outlook will allow you to:

  • Understand how global crop production and fertilizer consumption are set to change to 2030
  • Discover what this relationship means for nitrogen, phosphates and potash markets
  • Learn how over and under application of fertilizers can open up new opportunities – and impact existing markets and trade flows
  • Determine what the future prospects are for your business and plan ahead confidently

Methodology

The report is the culmination of two years of rigorous and complex primary research based on a robust methodology going way beyond the boundaries of the traditional “trend analysis” and fertilizer demand forecasting techniques currently being employed worldwide.

Fertilizer demand is forecast to 2030 by macro nutrient (N, P, and K), crop (all major grains, oilseeds, sugar, fibre, pulses, and fruits and vegetables) and major producing country/region.

Integer and LMC combine data and analysis for the drivers of demand, how these have changed and will continue to change in the future. We cover

Fertilizer: Crop: For the following countries/regions:
  • Efficiency/Waste
  • Application rates
  • Production
  • Nutrient employed
  • Technology
  • Yield
  • Crop type
  • Growth area
  • Technology
  • Argentina
  • Australia
  • Brazil
  • Canada
  • China
  • EU-27
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Malaysia
  • Pakistan
  • Russia
  • USA
  • Rest of World
  • Plus a global overview

Accurate forecasting of fertilizer demand is extremely important. It is very topical with food security and demand-driven prices increasingly influential as key business drivers. Weaknesses in existing trend analysis calculation techniques make this report a must have for the players involved.

Forecast Methodology

Integer’s forecast model takes as its starting point the calculation of application rates by crop by country/region. We assess under and over application of nutrients based on theoretical uptake rates taken from FAO and IFA Fertilizer Use Manual as well as optimum application rates by fertilizer efficient countries/regions. Our application rate forecast also includes additional influencing factors such as policies and farming structure. We analyse the importance of the other two major fertilizer demand drivers, yield and area, through several scenarios. This leads us to our final fertilizer forecast by nutrient taking into account area, yield and changes in application rates.

LMC’s forecasts of the growth in crop area are based on LMC’s integrated analysis of global agriculture. This determines which crops will be planted, their location, volume and prices. The forecast model is composed of an interlinked set of markets (created in excel work books) that solve, through iteration, for the area sown by country and crop. The model starts with the demand for crops, determines its influence on the world price and then calculates the area taken into production by country and the crop choice within each country.